Edible Oil Equation Shifts: Palm Gains, Sunflower Slips in India’s 2025/26 Outlook

India’s edible oil import landscape is poised for a reshuffle in the 2025/26 marketing year, with total imports projected to hit a record 17.1 million tonnes, up 4.6 percent year-on-year. The shift reflects changing consumer preferences, price dynamics, and geopolitical sourcing strategies, according to leading analyst Dorab Mistry.

Key highlights

- Palm oil imports are expected to surge 13.4 percent year-on-year to 9.3 million tonnes, driven by competitive pricing and strong demand from the food processing sector
- Sunflower oil imports are forecast to decline to 2.7 million tonnes, down from previous levels, due to higher global prices and supply constraints from key exporters like Ukraine and Russia
- Soybean oil volumes are likely to remain stable, with minor fluctuations depending on South American crop yields and domestic crushing margins

Market dynamics

- The rise in palm oil imports is attributed to favorable trade terms with Indonesia and Malaysia, coupled with its versatility in industrial and culinary applications
- Sunflower oil’s decline is linked to geopolitical tensions and freight bottlenecks, making it less attractive despite its health appeal
- Overall edible oil demand continues to grow, fueled by rising consumption in urban and semi-urban areas, along with expanding packaged food segments

Policy and pricing outlook

- Analysts expect the government to maintain low import duties to stabilize retail prices and curb inflationary pressures
- The record import volume underscores India’s continued reliance on overseas edible oil supplies despite efforts to boost domestic oilseed production

Sources: Reuters, Financial Express, Hindu BusinessLine, Analyst Dorab Mistry