Global Sugar Surplus Projected at 2.7 Million Metric Tons for 2025/26: Green Pool

Analysts at Green Pool Commodity Specialists forecast a global sugar surplus of 2.7 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season, revised downward from earlier estimates due to reduced production in India and Thailand. India’s sugar output is expected to drop 12% to 27 MMT amid ethanol diversification and climate pressures, while Thailand faces cane yield declines. Conversely, Brazil’s Center-South region is poised to produce 39.8 MMT of sugar, bolstering exports. Rising Chinese demand (+1% YoY) and strategic stockpiling may tighten long-term supply. Green Pool notes market risks persist, including India’s potential export restrictions and Brazil’s weather volatility.

Source: Green Pool Commodity Report, February 5, 2025