India’s Monsoon Delayed Again As IMD Revises Forecast To June 2–4 Arrival

When Will Monsoon Arrive

The IMD now expects the monsoon to reach Kerala between June 2 and June 4, 2026, slightly later than the usual June 1 date. Once it makes landfall, the monsoon typically spreads across the country by early July. 

Why Is It Delayed

Several factors have contributed to the delay:

• Weak westerly winds over the Arabian Sea, which are crucial for monsoon onset.
• Cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal, disrupting organized wind flow.
• Heatwave conditions in northern and central India, creating atmospheric instability.
• Developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific, which often weaken monsoon circulation. 

Why IMD Revised Its Forecast

• The IMD declares monsoon onset only when three criteria are met:
• Rainfall at 60% of 14 designated Kerala weather stations (≥2.5 mm for two consecutive days).
• Westerly winds at required strength at lower atmospheric levels.
• Adequate cloud cover detected by satellite imagery.
• As of May 25, these conditions were not satisfied, prompting IMD to revise its forecast multiple times, first to May 28, then June 1, and finally June 2–4. 

Key Weather Highlights

• Monsoon onset in Kerala now expected June 2–4
• IMD revised forecast three times due to unmet criteria
• Weak westerly winds and Bay of Bengal cyclonic activity caused delay
• Heatwave grips north India with temperatures up to 47.6°C
• Developing El Niño may reduce rainfall intensity this season

Sources: Moneycontrol, Business Today, India Today, NDTV, India Meteorological Department, India TV News