India’s fertility rate has plunged from 3.5 in 2000 to 1.9 today, prompting the Indian Association for the Study of Population to project that its population will peak at around 1.8–1.9 billion and stabilize by 2080 — signalling a major demographic transition toward an older, more stable population.
India is entering a major demographic shift, with its population projected to stabilise by around 2080 at roughly 1.8 to 1.9 billion, according to the Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP). The trend reflects a sharp drop in fertility over the last two decades, reshaping the country’s demographic trajectory ahead.
Key highlights from the IASP assessment:
Dramatic drop in fertility rates
The national total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen from 3.5 in 2000 to 1.9 today — a dramatic fall that pushes fertility below the replacement threshold.
Population expected to peak under two billion
Projections now suggest that India’s population will peak at under 2 billion, before flattening out by 2080.
Socio-economic factors at play
Rising female literacy, increasing economic opportunities for women, delayed marriages and changing aspirations have led to smaller family norms.
Wider access to reproductive choices
Enhanced access to contraception and better awareness around family planning have further accelerated the fertility decline.
Longer life expectancy — new challenges ahead
While fewer babies are being born, people are living longer. This, combined with youth migration, may increase demand for elderly care solutions such as community day-care centres.
This forecast marks a pivotal moment for India’s demographic landscape. A shrinking birth rate and rising longevity could lead to an ageing population over the coming decades, prompting shifts in healthcare, social security, labour dynamics and elder-care infrastructure.
Sources: Moneycontrol, Business Standard, PTI report via IASP.