Reuters Poll: Oil Price Forecasts Slashed for 2025 as Trade War and OPEC+ Moves Weigh on Market

Oil market sentiment has taken a bearish turn, with a Reuters poll of 40 economists and analysts projecting significantly lower average prices for both U.S. crude and Brent in 2025, compared to earlier estimates. The survey, released Wednesday, now expects U.S. crude oil (WTI) to average $65.08 per barrel in 2025, down from the March forecast of $69.16. Brent crude is forecast to average $68.98 per barrel, a sharp drop from the previous estimate of $72.94.

 

The downward revisions reflect mounting concerns over escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which have clouded the global demand outlook. Analysts cite the recent tit-for-tat tariffs as a key factor dampening expectations for economic growth and oil consumption. At the same time, OPEC+ has signaled a willingness to unwind production cuts and potentially boost supply, further pressuring prices.

 

While demand growth is still expected-Reuters’ poll points to an average increase of 860,000 barrels per day-this is below previous forecasts and lags behind more optimistic projections from OPEC itself. Some analysts warn that if OPEC+ accelerates supply increases as planned, prices could face additional volatility in the months ahead.

 

The combination of trade war headwinds and a possible supply glut has led major banks and research houses to trim their oil price outlooks, with HSBC, Barclays, and others echoing the Reuters poll’s cautious tone. Market watchers now brace for a turbulent year, as oil prices search for a new equilibrium amid shifting fundamentals.

 

Source: Reuters