Crude Moves: How India's Oil Diplomacy Outsmarted the Hormuz Heat

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Major Developments:

1. Since Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened tensions with Israel and the US, oil markets worldwide anticipate disruption. The strait transports approximately 20 percent of global oil and one-third of its LNG cargos.
2. India, which receives over 40 percent of its crude through this bottleneck, is observed to be comparatively insulated due to strategic diversification and rising imports from the US and Russia.

India's Energy Playbook:

- Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri gave assurance that India's oil supply chain is secure, talking on a shift from the Middle East dependence.
- Indian refiners received more Russian oil last month than from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE combined.
- LNG shipments are kept going uninterrupted, with significant partners like Qatar, Australia, and the US going around Hormuz.

Economic Implications:

- While oil prices may spike temporarily, India’s strategic reserves and multi-country sourcing are expected to cushion the blow.

- Experts warn that a prolonged shutdown will still impact GDP and inflation, but short-term volatility is being proactively addressed.

Geopolitical Forecasts: - The final decision on the closure of Iran rests with its Supreme National Security Council. If the closure proceeds, it would be the first such measure since the 1980s Tanker War.

Sources: Economic Times, Times of India, Indian Express, MSN India, OneIndia News